Senin, 24 November 2014

The fear of "escalation of both sides"

The fear of "escalation of both sides"

The two parties are negotiating under an interim agreement reached in Geneva in November 2013, which provides for the freezing of some of the nuclear activities of Iran against a partial lifting of international sanctions. The extension "would be the lesser evil," according to an Iranian source, explaining that the worst would be "a climate of confrontation with an escalation of both sides. For example, an answer to new sanctions by the development of the program nuclear. " What are the contours of the extension? Kelsey Davenport believes that a delay of several months "would have no chance" of success. This expert on nuclear non-proliferation in the Arms Control Association considers realistic contrast "a short extension to refine the details of an agreement," if sufficient progress by Monday evening.
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Legally, it could be either an outright renewal of the Geneva Agreement, either a single time to refine the details of a political settlement. This second option, however, imply that firm commitments, and probably encrypted, are taken from both sides on Monday. A comprehensive agreement would restore the breath to the Iranian economy, thanks to the lifting of Western oil embargo. It would offer the prospect of normalization between Iran and the West, or even cooperation on Iraq and Syria.

But the extension of the talks may make the game of those who, in the West and Iran, opposed a crisis. American elected officials are in favor of new sanctions against Tehran. And in January, opponents Republicans Barack Obama will control Congress, impeding the flexibility of the Democratic president. In Iran, the head of the Revolutionary Guards, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, and the head of the Islamic Basij militia, General Mohammad Reza Nagdi, did not lose Monday to criticize the negotiations and the 5 + 1. "To hell if they do not accept. To hell if they impose sanctions," said the latter, quoted by ISNA news agency.